Zohran Mamdani, the self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist from Queens, surged to the front of the pack by winning a chaotic and crowded Democratic primary for mayor of New York City in a stunning development that’s still sending shockwaves across the city’s political class. Once dismissed as a fringe candidate with radical ideas, Mamdani’s upset has upended assumptions and reset the board heading into November’s general election.
The question now isn’t just how Mamdani pulled this off—but what happens next. To help answer that, we assembled a “dream team” of analysts with lots of political campaign experience who put their heads together and came up with some initial impressions.
How Andrew Cuomo Went from Frontrunner to Flameout
Just weeks ago, former Governor Andrew Cuomo looked poised for a political comeback which, frankly, disgusted us. He had name recognition, campaign cash, and a loyal base of support—especially among older voters and traditional Democrats.
But the signs were always there. Cracks on the campaign started forming when Cuomo missed the first round of campaign matching funds due to clerical mismanagement. Then, in the final round of funding, Cuomo was penalized over $600,000 for colluding with a Super-PAC via a tactic called “red-boxing.”
Also, Cuomo’s past came back to haunt him. His handling of COVID-19, which galvanized Mamdani and other candidates together at a joint rally this past February, the nursing home scandal, a referral to the DOJ for perjury before Congress which Tracey Alvino and Voices for Seniors doggedly pursued, sexual harassment allegations, and his role in signing New York’s controversial no-cash bail law all weighed him down. Moreover, Murray pointed out how progressive groups launched coordinated “Do Not Rank Cuomo” campaigns across the city, and that the media offered little cover, with even the New York Post offering tepid support at best.
Worse still, the math didn’t work. Ranked-choice voting left Cuomo boxed out. O’B Murray observed expertly that, as the rounds progressed, Cuomo’s share of redistributed votes was likely to stagnate. Ultimately, Cuomo saw the writing on the wall and bowed out early on election night—before the first round of ranked choice voting ever completed.
But, that’s the past. Let’s look to the future.
Eric Adams Faces an Uphill Battle Against Mamdani’s Momentum
Looking back at 2021, Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams had the three characteristics of a successful campaign working for him: money, momentum and messaging. This time around, Adams chose to opt out of the Democratic primary by choosing to run on an independent ballot line, which, in the end, was probably the best choice for him. But he now faces an energized opponent in Mamdani, has what Adams currently lacks: momentum.
Mamdani has captured the imagination of younger, more progressive voters with a bold (if unrealistic) platform: free public transportation, rent freezes, publicly run grocery stores, and a $30 minimum wage.
To his credit, Adams was on the airwaves immediately after Mamdani’s primary victory. He took a swing at Mamdani’s platform on Fox & Friends, calling it “snake oil” and pointing out that Mamdani doesn’t even understand the powers of the mayor’s office. Substantively, Adams may be right, and this might be the start of Adams articulating a clear counter-message: that Mamdani is not ready for prime time. But critiques alone won’t cut it.
The consensus from last night’s show was that Adams must define what he stands for—and do it fast. The general election clock is ticking, and Mamdani’s campaign is already in motion.
But at least give Adams credit for showing up.
Curtis Sliwa and his Republican Identity Crisis
And then there’s Curtis Sliwa who, unlike Adams, didn’t even show up.
Sliwa—founder of the Guardian Angels and GOP nominee—is nowhere to be found in the largest media market in the world.
One day after the primary, Sliwa missed a golden opportunity to insert himself into the conversation meaningfully. That silence frustrated Tracey Alvino, who said that conservatives and independents who might be looking for an alternative to both Adams and Mamdani have been left wanting at a time when voters are actually paying attention.
But Sliwa faces a steeper hill than just media strategy. Research from our own Amanda Kohut, as confirmed by Murray, showed Mamdani surprisingly winning over Asian voters who provided Sliwa with his base of support in 2021 when he lost to Adams. Moreover, his past criticisms of Donald Trump and remarks perceived as anti-Semitic have alienated parts of the city’s right-leaning voter base, particularly in Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods that have traditionally been swing blocks for the GOP. Add in the exodus of Republican voters from the city since COVID, and the math looks bleak.
Even with funding, Sliwa’s ability to rehabilitate his image and build a credible coalition remains in serious doubt.
Conclusion: It’s Mamdani’s Race to Lose
With the primary in the rearview mirror and about 90 meaningful days until the general election, all signs point to a race that Mamdani firmly controls. He has the energy, media buzz, and a clear (though unrealistic) message.
Adams has incumbency—but he’s starting from zero as Mamdani laps the field.
Sliwa has history—but needs a fresh coat of paint.
What happens next will depend on who can capture the city’s fractured electorate—and whether anyone not named Mamdani is bold enough and skilled enough to stop his momentum.
What do you think? Can Adams define himself before Mamdani defines him first? Can Curtis Sliwa get the money and people needed to make a difference?
Let us know in the comments below—and don’t forget to Subscribe to Buffoon of the Week on YouTube, on Rumble and on X to get wonky analysis mixed with a tinge of snark that never patronizes our audience!
